Estimating Discharge Time Series in Data-Scarce Mountainous Areas Using Remote Sensing Inversion and Regionalization Methods

The Tianshan–Pamir mountain region, serving as the core “water tower” for countries in Central Asia east of the Aral Sea, is a critical bulwark for sustaining downstream socioeconomic systems. However, constrained by complex topography and harsh climatic conditions, this region suffers from a severe scarcity of long-term, continuous hydrological observation data. This study focuses on a typical data-scarce mountainous area, coupling UAV and satellite imagery-based (e.g., Landsat/Sentinel) flow inversion with a hybrid spatial regionalization method—integrating spatial proximity, basin similarity, and regression-based hydrograph reconstruction—to quantitatively estimate long-term discharge time series. The results indicate that, for the validation of instantaneous discharge inversion, the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) at 29 river cross-sections was consistently greater than 0.80, with the coefficient of determination (R2) reached 0.94 (p < 0.01). Subsequently, for the long-term discharge series reconstructed using the regionalization method, the NSE values at three representative verification sites—each corresponding to a distinct basin type—were 0.88, 0.84, and 0.86, respectively. These findings exhibit higher precision compared to direct temporal upscaling, confirming the reliability of the regionalization method across varying temporal scales. An analysis of monthly discharge trends from 1989 to 2020 revealed a decreasing trend in the discharge of glacier-dominated rivers, with an average rate of change of −2.89 ± 2.54% (p < 0.05); the Pamir Plateau experienced the largest decline (−4.89 ± 6.58%), which is closely linked to large-scale glacial retreat within the basins. Conversely, the discharge of non-glacier-dominated rivers showed an increasing trend, with a multi-year average rate of change of +0.32 ± 8.43% (n.s.), primarily driven by shifts in precipitation and vegetation cover. This research introduces a new approach for hydrological monitoring in data-scarce regions and provides essential data and methodological support for water resource management decisions in arid zones.