From Scale to Technology: Pathways to Decarbonization in China’s Photovoltaic Manufacturing Sector

While critical to the global energy transition, China’s photovoltaic (PV) sector exemplifies the ‘green paradox’ of clean energy supply chains, where the rapid expansion of solar infrastructure generates significant upstream carbon emissions. This study provides a long-term (2000–2022) empirical examination of this tension, investigating the decoupling relationship between industrial growth and embodied carbon emissions. Employing a multi-regional input–output model, we quantify the evolving carbon footprint of China’s PV manufacturing. We then apply the Tapio decoupling framework—which measures whether emissions grow slower than, or decline relative to, economic output—and structural decomposition analysis to identify the key drivers of emission changes over two decades. Finally, we project future decarbonization pathways (2023–2030) under four policy scenarios using Monte Carlo simulations. Our findings reveal a fundamental transition: since 2015, technological progress has become the dominant force for emission reductions, contributing 78% to cumulative reductions and marking a shift from a ‘scale-driven’ to a ‘technology-driven’ growth model. However, rising global demand continues to push total emissions upward, resulting in ‘weak decoupling’ (emissions grow, but slower than output) rather than the ‘strong decoupling’ (absolute emissions decline) required for carbon neutrality. Scenario analysis indicates that strong decoupling is achievable by 2030 under ambitious policy and technology scenarios, with the Technological Breakthrough scenario projecting a 39% emission reduction alongside 103% output growth. Nevertheless, even under optimistic assumptions, approximately 29,000 tons of residual emissions remain due to the inherent energy intensity of upstream processes like polysilicon production. These findings support the development of differentiated policies that balance industrial competitiveness with carbon neutrality goals, highlighting that China’s PV sector—while enabling global decarbonization—must itself undergo a deep decarbonization transition.