Analysis of Socio-Economic Factors Affecting the Birth Rate in Russia Using the Example of the Komi Republic Using Simulation Modeling

The demographic situation of the country is the most important indicator for building public policy. At the same time, this parameter is one of the indicators of the socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation, since the number and age and gender composition of the population directly affect the processes of production, consumption and public welfare. A comprehensive analysis of all factors affecting the demographic situation, using various programmatic methods, enables government officials to make informed decisions on crisis management, as well as build scenarios for the development of a comprehensive demographic strategy aimed at stabilizing the situation. There has been a steady decline in the total fertility rate in the world since the second half of the 20th century. Previously, the global average was 4.97, but now it is 2.42. The value of this indicator in Russia is significantly lower than the global average, but it increased from 1.2 to 1.4 between 2000 and 2022. However, even this is not enough to reproduce the population, since this indicator should be 2.1-2.2. The problem of negative growth is one of the most urgent today and the Government of the Russian Federation is taking significant measures to solve it. Within the framework of the study, various computer tools were used to obtain modeling results with subsequent interpretation of scenario experiments on demographic and socio-economic indicators of Russian regions. An analysis of the impact of socio-economic factors on the total fertility rate (TFR) in the Komi Republic was carried out separately, since in 2022 the region was in the top 30 of the rating for this indicator. The analysis and approbation of the obtained results were carried out using modern economic and mathematical apparatus and simulation modeling.