Probabilistic Water Quality Monitoring Using Multi-Temporal Sentinel-2 Data: A Situational Awareness Framework for Harmful Algal Bloom Forecasting

Environmental monitoring systems require robust uncertainty quantification for effective decision-making in complex ecological processes. Harmful algal blooms represent a critical challenge where prediction uncertainty directly impacts resource allocation and response timing, yet current remote sensing-based prediction systems provide only deterministic classifications without confidence measures. This gap between algorithmic predictions and actionable risk assessment limits operational utility for stakeholders managing water quality under varying risk tolerances. This study developed a transferable probabilistic forecasting framework integrating Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery with quantile regression and ensemble machine learning to generate continuous confidence indicators for cyanobacteria density prediction, demonstrated through its application to Lake Okeechobee, Florida. The methodology combines spectral indices extracted from Sentinel-2 data with XGBoost for quantile regression at 0.05, 0.50, and 0.95 probability levels, and LightGBM for multi-horizon temporal forecasting. Sentinel-2’s 13 spectral bands spanning visible to shortwave infrared wavelengths, combined with its 5-day revisit frequency provide a spectrally rich and temporally dense input space that is well-suited to gradient boosting methods such as XGBoost, which can exploit complex nonlinear interactions among spectral features to distinguish cyanobacterial signatures from background water constituents. LightGBM achieved mean absolute percentage errors of 2.9% for 10-day forecasts and 5.7% for 20-day forecasts, outperforming conventional regression models. The framework generates 90% prediction intervals that enable reliable risk classifications for operational bloom management. This approach bridges the gap between satellite-based algal bloom detection and actionable decision-making by quantifying predictive uncertainty, representing a shift from binary classifications to probability-based environmental monitoring systems that accommodate varying stakeholder risk tolerances in water quality management applications.