Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of Bike-Sharing-to-Metro Feeder Trips Based on OPGD-GTWR Models

Clarifying the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of bike-sharing-to-metro feeder trips (BSMF) is key to optimizing urban public transport’s first-and-last-mile connectivity and advancing low-carbon development. Existing studies on BSMF mostly ignore spatiotemporal heterogeneity, lack in-depth exploration of multi-factor interaction effects, and have subjective stratification or model specification bias, which hinder the accurate depiction of BSMF’s complex evolutionary patterns. Taking Xi’an as a case with 126 metro stations as analysis units, this study integrates multi-source data including shared bike trip records, metro network and built environment attributes to address the above issues. A framework combining kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, Optimal Parameter Geographic Detector (OPGD) and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) models (OPGD-GTWR) is constructed to identify BSMF’s spatiotemporal patterns, screen key influencing factors and reveal their spatiotemporal heterogeneity and interactive mechanisms. Results show Xi’an’s BSMF trips feature a “double-peak and double-valley” temporal tidal pattern and core-periphery spatial agglomeration. The OPGD-GTWR model (R2 = 0.853) outperforms traditional models in capturing spatiotemporal heterogeneity. These findings provide empirical evidence and refined references for shared mobility resource allocation, bike-metro integration improvement and transit-oriented urban planning.