Sustainable Energy Resilience Under Climate Change: Spatiotemporal Disentangling of Structural and Magnitude Drivers of Compound Risk

The stability of solar-dependent energy systems is vital for urban sustainability, but it is increasingly threatened by compound energy risks (CERs), events where low photovoltaic generation coincides with high electricity demand. This study addresses a critical knowledge gap by disentangling the co-evolving structural and magnitude drivers of these events to identify their propagation pathways and the most vulnerable districts. To achieve this, a novel hybrid framework was developed to provide a high-resolution, spatiotemporal assessment of both risk dimensions across Singapore’s 41 districts. Structural risk was mapped by integrating an undirected co-occurrence network, quantified using Mutual Information (MI), with a directed influence network derived from Bayesian Network Theory (BNT). Concurrently, magnitude risk was assessed through a copula-based analysis of joint probabilities for historical and future climate conditions, using Singapore’s new V3 dataset under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The results reveal a significant shift in the compound energy risk landscape. Structurally, the network of risk propagation evolves from a historically diffuse configuration to a consolidated system dominated by clusters of 8 to 9 highly interconnected districts under the SSP245 scenario. Under the high-diffusion SSP585 scenario, this evolution is expanded by the addition of 4 more districts. At the same time, the magnitude of risk intensifies across identified hotspot districts. This synthesis uncovers a critical feedback dynamic: districts such as 29, 36, and 40 not only serve as key structural hubs but also experience sharp increases in event probability, with their return periods for extreme compound events collapsing from over 50 years historically to the 10–20-year range. This forms a self-reinforcing loop of systemic vulnerability. These findings indicate that Singapore’s energy security will become increasingly exposed to climate-driven risks that propagate through this consolidated network, requiring targeted spatial adaptation to ensure long-term grid sustainability.