Behaviour Change in Transport Systems: COM-B and Systems Dynamics for School Mobility in Latin America

Rationale and aims<br/>Safe, sustainable and inclusive school mobility is a critical yet under-theorised domain of behaviour change policy, particularly in low- and middle-income contexts where children face disproportionate risks from road traffic injury and exclusion from education. This study examines how behavioural, institutional and systemic factors shape the long-term sustainability of school mobility programmes across selected cities in Latin America and the Caribbean.<br/>Methods<br/>The study adopts a mixed-methods systems approach as part of Component 2 of a regional policy programme on safe school mobility. It integrates systems dynamics modelling, cluster analysis and COM-B–informed policy diagnostics across eight national and local government beneficiaries in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Peru and the Dominican Republic. Stakeholder and governance mapping, document analysis, visual audits of school environments and comparative indicator analysis were combined to identify structural enablers and barriers to behaviour change in children’s journeys to school.<br/>Analysis<br/>Systems dynamics modelling was used to identify reinforcing and balancing feedback loops influencing school travel behaviour, including interactions between safety interventions, congestion, parental risk perception and institutional incentives. Policy documents and programmes were analysed using the COM-B model and the Behaviour Change Wheel to assess coverage of behavioural determinants. A portfolio of policy interventions was subsequently appraised with stakeholders using the APEASE framework.<br/>Findings<br/>Findings reveal persistent fragmentation of authority across governance levels, uneven programme maturity and significant data gaps that undermine sustained behaviour change. While most policies address psychological capability and physical opportunity, such as education campaigns and infrastructure improvements, there is systematic underinvestment in practical skills, social opportunity and automatic motivation, which are key drivers of sustainable behaviour change. Systems dynamics analysis further shows that short-term safety interventions can unintentionally reinforce car dependence when behavioural and institutional feedback loops are neglected.<br/>Conclusions<br/>Integrating behaviour change frameworks with systems thinking provides a robust foundation for designing sustainable school mobility policy. The study demonstrates how COM-B and the Behaviour Change Wheel can be operationalised within complex, multi-level transport systems, offering transferable insights for developing equitable and resilient mobility interventions that endure beyond political cycles.<br/>