From Forced Displacement to Territorial Resilience: Socio-Economic Preconditions for Sustainable Reintegration in Post-Conflict Karabakh

Post-conflict population return represents one of the most complex challenges of regional development, as it requires not only physical resettlement but also the restoration of socio-economic systems and territorial functionality. In the contemporary global context, empirical evidence on sustainable reintegration remains limited, particularly about resilience-oriented analytical frameworks. This article examines the socio-economic preconditions for sustainable reintegration in the post-conflict Karabakh economic region through the lens of territorial resilience. Drawing on a systematic analysis of spatial, demographic, sectoral, and investment indicators, the study explores how settlement structure, demographic composition, agricultural performance, and capital investment dynamics shape the region’s capacity to absorb returning populations. The findings reveal that Karabakh exhibits a relatively coherent internal spatial structure, a youthful demographic profile exceeding national averages, and a strong agricultural base that contributes significantly to national output. At the same time, pronounced intra-regional disparities, low levels of urbanization, and gender imbalances within the youth cohort highlight structural vulnerabilities that may constrain long-term stability. The results demonstrate that agriculture functions as a key pillar of rural resilience, while accelerated housing construction and fixed capital investment underpin material foundations for permanent settlement. However, sustainable reintegration depends on territorially differentiated policies that strengthen rural-urban linkages, promote inclusive labor markets, and align settlement planning with economic development strategies. By advancing a resilience-based interpretation of post-conflict reintegration, the article contributes to regional development and post-conflict studies and offers transferable insights for other regions undergoing large-scale population return.