Globalization-led growth in the post-soviet CIS region: findings from advanced panel cointegration methods

This study investigates the long- and short-run determinants of economic growth in nine CIS countries, focusing on globalization, foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, energy consumption, ICT development, and institutional quality over 1991–2022. Using FMOLS, DOLS, and the Panel ARDL-PMG approach, the analysis captures both long-term equilibrium and short-run dynamics. Results reveal a complex relationship between growth and globalization dimensions: FDI and trade openness have modest negative long-run effects, likely due to sectoral concentration and external vulnerabilities, while energy consumption and ICT development positively drive growth, highlighting technological and structural factors. Institutional globalization strongly enhances growth, emphasizing the importance of governance and international institutional integration. In contrast, economic and political globalization show negative long-run effects, suggesting risks from poorly managed integration. The findings underscore the need for policies promoting knowledge-intensive investment, trade diversification, energy efficiency, ICT infrastructure, and robust institutional frameworks to maximize the benefits of globalization while mitigating its risks.