Burned area trends and fire susceptibility in protected areas of Kenya: the potential rolesof human activities and climate

Abstract Background Protected areas and their ecosystems play an essential role in safeguarding unique habitats, endangered and threatened species, and ensuring the maintenance of ecosystem services for humanity while acting as tourist destinations and sacred sites for some indigenous people. However, wildfires have continued to threaten these ecosystems while human activities and climate change are expected to exacerbate wildfires by altering fire regimes in many regions around the world, potentially threatening the services these ecosystems provide, especially in Kenya. Therefore, accurate understanding of burned area trends and fire-susceptible areas is critical for managing wildfires, protecting endangered species and their habitats, and safeguarding ecosystem services. To establish spatial and temporal patterns of burned area and wildfire susceptibility, this study used Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 images (30 m spatial resolution) from 2001 to 2022 to map wildfires in four selected fire-suppressed protected areas including two montane and two savanna ecosystems in Kenya. The Random Forest algorithm was used to classify burned and fire-susceptible areas and to model key causal factors. Results We observed insignificant varying trends in mean annual burned areas in the montane ecosystems of Aberdare and Mt. Elgon protected areas. Annual burned areas in the savanna ecosystems were significantly larger than in the montane ecosystems ( p < 0.01), with the Maasai Mara National Reserve exhibiting a significant increasing trend ( p < 0.001) and shifting seasonality, and Tsavo Protected Area showing a significant declining trend ( p < 0.01). Susceptible areas within the study sites ranged between 11 and 37% of the total size of the protected area. Rainfall, elevation, temperature, and proximity to agricultural activities were the main model predictors among the study sites while protected areas affected by human-driven fires burned more frequently and in larger proportions compared to weather-driven fires. Conclusions The results show that existing fire suppression policies have not adequately addressed increasing wildfire in the protected areas. Effective monitoring, management, and implementation of integrated fire management strategies are therefore essential, as increasing wildfires may compromise the ecological integrity and ecosystem services provided by these protected areas.