How ICT drives household carbon emissions in China: evidence on micro mechanisms, consumption pathways, and regional heterogeneity

With the increasing importance of household carbon emissions in global climate change, this study investigates how Information and Communication Technology (ICT) adoption, specifically mobile payments and online shopping, influences indirect household carbon emissions (indirect-HCE) in China. Addressing the lack of research from a micro-level perspective, this study employs data from the China Household Finance Survey, combined with a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model and the consumer lifestyle approach (CLA), to establish a “technology–household characteristics–carbon emissions” theoretical and accounting framework. It further incorporates household structural features into the analysis of moderating effects, thereby innovatively examining the regional and demographic heterogeneity in the impact of ICT on carbon emissions. The findings reveal that the adoption of ICT stimulates household consumption by enhancing payment convenience and lowering consumption barriers, thereby contributing to higher emissions, with ICT adoption increasing per capita emissions by approximately one-third and ICT usage intensity by about 10–15%. However, the effects vary based on household characteristics such as education, age, and consumption patterns. Households with higher education levels and a younger demographic are more likely to amplify the carbon-increasing effects of ICT technologies, whereas households dominated by rigid, basic consumption categories are particularly sensitive to the carbon effects associated with ICT adoption. Additionally, regional analysis highlights disparities, with the eastern region exhibiting the strongest ICT-driven carbon increases due to advanced infrastructure and consumption models. This study provides a nuanced understanding of ICT’s dual role in enabling sustainable consumption and amplifying carbon emissions. It also offers actionable insights for policymakers to design tailored strategies promoting low-carbon consumption.