Conditioning Public Opinion Perceptions by “Survey Methods 101”: Informing, Engaging, and Motivating Individuals for Critical Processing of Public Opinion Polls

Abstract Can we train individuals on survey methods to boost their critical processing of public opinion evidence? While polls are one of the most systematic and scientific methods for measuring and communicating public opinion, they face credibility challenges, such as decreasing public trust, the prevalence of straw and misinformation polls, and individuals’ biased dismissal of polls that deliver unfavorable results. These issues manifest and fuel misperceptions, misinformation, and polarization in public opinion, pollsters, and the media. We designed and tested a novel strategy to mitigate these challenges collectively, indirectly, and nonconfrontationally via preemptive educative interventions that cultivate polling literacy. Integrating components from pedagogical and persuasion theories, three interventions are designed to (1) inform (passive literacy), (2) inform and engage (active literacy), and (3) inform, engage, and motivate (psychological inoculation) individuals. The effects of these interventions were evaluated and compared in an extensive, preregistered, longitudinal experiment. In Wave 1, trainees were exposed to one of the interventions or a control training. In Wave 2, participants viewed polls with either poor or robust methodology, tested across different poll results (majority supporting vs. opposing; ecological validity) and issues (COVID-19 vaccines and artificial intelligence; conceptual replication), and then evaluated polling evidence. Results showed that inoculation was particularly effective. Participants’ education levels and science literacy levels conditioned various intervention effects. The theoretical implications of this novel pathway to conditioning public opinion and practical insights are discussed with a qualitative review and recommendations for existing public education efforts.