Accounting for the oil-democracy nexus: a qualitative comparative analysis of the political resource curse

Does oil matter for democracy? If so, does it hinder or enable it? Although the literature has mainly found that oil is negatively associated with democracy, i.e. the political resource curse, there are also suggestions of a positive link. Despite the improvements in the debate in terms of sophistication in theory, conceptualization, and methods, the jury seems to still be out on this issue. That oil can lead to different, in fact opposite, outcomes indicates causal heterogeneity. To test this hypothesis, this paper studies a sample of 41 countries using fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). While QCA facilitates the study of causal complexity, by regarding cases as constellations of conditions, fuzzy sets enable capturing differences of kind and degree in conceptualized phenomena. The results confirm that oil wealth can lead to both autocratic and democratic outcomes and identify two distinct pathways leading to each. These configurations identify the specific conditions associated with different regime outcomes, thereby providing a more nuanced understanding of the oil–democracy nexus.