Navigating Vulnerability in Fisheries Livelihoods on Lake Tanganyika:Institutional Mediation and Adaptive Strategies of Small-Scale Fisherfolk to Conflict Effects

Small-scale fisheries support millions in low-income countries, yet conflict heightens their vulnerability. Despite recognition of its multiple dimensions, little is known about how fisherfolk experience conflict-induced vulnerabilities and how institutions mediate these experiences. This study conceptualizes vulnerability through exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, and, drawing on Critical Institutionalism, asks: (1) how do small-scale fisherfolk experience and respond to vulnerability under conflict; and (2) how do formal and informal institutions mediate these responses? Using Lake Tanganyika as a case study, qualitative data were collected from six shoreline villages in Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Findings demonstrate that institutional dynamics can reduce, sustain, or intensify vulnerability depending on context. Fisherfolk actively engage with institutions, adopting adaptive strategies shaped by local socio-economic realities. This research moves beyond narrow representations of vulnerability, emphasizing fisherfolk’s agency and calling for inclusive co-management policies that integrate local norms with formal governance to strengthen adaptive capacity.