Reimagining rural transit: model-based insights into demand-responsive transportation

Public transit in rural areas faces the challenge of providing an adequate level of service at a reasonable cost, given very low demand density and long average travel distances. There is an expectation to reduce costs and improve service quality by introducing demand-responsive transportation (DRT). This paper uses a model-based analysis to explore the potential of a high-quality and comprehensive DRT system to substitute individual car journeys in a typical rural region. The reference region—surrounding Schweinfurt in Germany—covers 4000 km2, has 432,000 inhabitants, and is characterized by low population density and low-quality public transit offer. The model consists of a trip pooling component and a mode choice model. We compare a baseline scenario for 2025 with a scenario where DRT functions as a door-to-door service and for first and last mile connections to railway stations. The model predicts a DRT modal trip share of 14%, with higher shares in peripheral areas where it connects neighboring settlements. Although DRT leads to a significant modal shift from car use, it may increase road traffic in certain areas due to a shift from non-car modes. First economic estimates indicate that the service can achieve a similar cost coverage to the existing public transit system with a pricing scheme that is roughly twice as expensive as the current public transit single ticket. Overall, the findings suggest that DRT can play a crucial role in enhancing rural mobility by improving accessibility and connectivity, especially in regions with limited traditional public transit, and offers a viable alternative to private car use in peripheral areas.