Understanding the cultivated land multifunction supply-demand risk to promote long-term provision: Insights from a spatiotemporal analysis in China's Xinjiang

Cultivated land multifunction supply-demand (CLMSD) mismatch can pose potential risks to food security, agricultural production, the ecological environment, social stability, and economic development. However, most current research focuses on the CLMSD relationship, while research on the risks caused by CLMSD mismatch is still at an exploratory stage, resulting in a lack of comprehensive understanding of CLMSD risk. To address this gap, this study focuses on China's Xinjiang, and proposes a research framework for CLMSD risk based on a “measurement-assessment-identification” process. It quantifies CLMSD risk, delineates cultivated land management zones based on the risk identification results, and proposes targeted management strategies. Our study found that: From 2000 to 2020, both the supply and demand levels of cultivated land multifunction (CLM) in Xinjiang increased, and the CLMSD matching status was primarily characterized by a surplus. There is significant spatial heterogeneity in CLMSD risk, with high-risk zones predominantly concentrated in oasis cities. Cultivated land management zones are categorized into six types: the optimized development zone, the moderate development zone, the conservation development zone, and three supply-demand risk zones. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of CLMSD risk and provide support for promoting the long-term provision of the cultivated land system. • Constructing a research framework for the cultivated land multifunction supply-demand (CLMSD) risk. • Classification of CLMSD risk based on supply-demand status and temporal trend indicators. • CLMSD risk exhibits marked heterogeneity. • High risk of cultivated land life function. • Management strategies for CLMSD risk were discussed.