Participatory scenario planning for energy governance under uncertainty: Insights from Iran

This study develops national-level energy governance scenarios for Iran under global energy uncertainty, using a participatory, expert-based scenario planning approach. Combining global foresight with localized expert insights, the framework integrates taxonomy analysis and scenario logic to construct four plausible futures based on two critical axes: global economic performance and energy market governance. The first scenario, Bright Times , envisions a cooperative, centralized energy regime under global economic growth, fostering renewable energy development, stable oil prices, and carbon mitigation through international collaboration, an ideal future for Iran. The second scenario, Big Government/Cash Cow , depicts a centrally governed market amid global economic stagnation, where investment shifts toward fossil fuel efficiency and nuclear energy, while renewable energy ambitions recede. The third scenario, Red Ocean , features liberalized, competitive energy markets in a growing economy, characterized by regional price competition, decentralized governance, and accelerated electrification driven by private sector investment. Finally, the Vertigo scenario illustrates a fragmented, crisis-prone world with economic recession and intense geopolitical competition over energy markets, resulting in increased energy poverty, reliance on fossil fuels and nuclear power, and unequal access to emerging digital infrastructures. Across all scenarios, growing electricity demand, especially from artificial intelligence, data processing, and digitalization, emerges as a key disruptor. The proposed methodology offers a transferable tool for policymakers in other emerging economies, enabling inclusive, strategic energy planning under complex and uncertain conditions. The study offers a case-based contribution by illustrating how participatory scenario planning can translate global energy uncertainties into nationally relevant policy narratives in a Global South context. • A participatory scenario development model has been proposed. • Four scenarios were developed and narrated to explore how energy governance and the economy interact. • Energy governance paradigm and global economy shape the energy future. • Findings showed that an established energy regime reduces the risks of energy poverty and improves global energy security.