Arctic sea ice loss shifting from edge to interior increases cold surges in mid-latitude Asia

Past studies have presented different findings regarding how the impact of Arctic sea ice melt on Eurasia's winter cold extremes (WCE) is changing, with some suggesting a strengthening effect while others indicate a weakening influence. In this study, we demonstrate that interannual variability of Arctic sea ice is closely linked to climatological mean sea ice concentration (SIC). In low ice regimes (mean SIC <0.2), interannual variability declines with sea ice loss, resulting in a weakened Rossby wave response and consequently a reduced impact on WCE in mid-high latitudes. In contrast, high ice regimes (mean SIC >0.8) exhibit increased interannual variability with sea ice loss, extending its influence on WCE into mid-latitudes in Asia through amplifying Rossby waves. As Arctic sea ice loss progresses from the southern edge of the low ice regime to the interior of the high ice regime, WCE in mid-latitude Asia increase. These insights are critical for improving seasonal predictions of Eurasian WCE and enhancing adaptive capacity to cope with extreme weather events. • Arctic sea ice melt lowers edge variability but increases it near the interior. • Marginal ice's impact on Eurasian cold extremes weakens as interior impact grows. • Poleward Arctic ice melt could intensify winter cold extremes in mid-latitude Asia.