Political and economic influences on the Energy Trilemma in Latin America and the Caribbean

Despite increasing interest in the Energy Trilemma, the political and economic forces shaping energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability remain underexplored, especially in developing regions. This study addresses this gap using a two-stage empirical strategy that combines high-dimensional variable selection with fixed-effects panel estimation to identify the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) indicators most strongly associated with the three dimensions of the Energy Trilemma in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The analysis reveals two central patterns. First, foundational investments in human capital, social inclusion, and infrastructure consistently support more robust energy systems. Second, structural vulnerabilities arise from short-lived, narrow-based economic booms and from political incentives that prioritize short-term subsidized affordability over long-term energy security and environmental sustainability. Overall, the findings demonstrate how broader development trajectories shape energy outcomes and offer policy-relevant insights for strengthening energy transitions in developing regions. • Examines how political and economic conditions shape the Energy Trilemma in LAC. • Uses LASSO selection with fixed-effects panel estimation for SDG-trilemma links. • Finds long-term investments crucial for energy security and sustainability. • Uncovers trade-offs between poverty alleviation and environmental sustainability. • Shows political incentives for subsidized affordability undermine long-term goals.