Risk-aware planning of forest-to-bioenergy supply chains under wildfire disturbance

Forest management and operations planning involve complex decisions that integrate ecological knowledge, spatial data, and analytical tools to balance sustainable resource use with risk mitigation. Disturbances such as storms, diseases, and wildfires increasingly disrupt forest ecosystems and value chains. The timely removal, processing, and delivery of forest residues to bioenergy facilities are essential to reduce wildfire risk, prevent disease spread, and ensure operational continuity for forest managers and owners. This study presents a decision-support approach to address supply uncertainty caused by wildfires within the forest-to-bioenergy value chain. The methodology first generates multiple raw material variability scenarios using a fire simulation model, then clusters them according to post-fire biomass availability and probability of occurrence. These clusters are integrated into a two-stage stochastic optimization model incorporating a Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) metric. Results show that the stochastic model with CVaR achieves the lowest total cost while ensuring complete processing of biomass under the most severe wildfire scenarios. The findings highlight the value of flexible and risk-aware planning strategies for forest operations, supporting decision-makers in balancing investments in processing capacity, cost efficiency, and post-disturbance resource utilization. • A risk-aware planning approach is developed for forest-to-bioenergy supply chains. • Wildfire-induced variability in biomass supply is explicitly modeled and analyzed. • A two-stage stochastic model with a CVaR metric supports adaptive forest planning. • A simulation–optimization framework generates realistic wildfire disruption scenarios. • A Portuguese case study demonstrates trade-offs between cost, capacity, and resilience.