Pythagorean expectation for predicting winning percentages in women's limited-over cricket

The Pythagorean Expectation can be used to calculate expected winning percentage in various sports. This metric was developed by baseball statistician Bill James and has since been adapted in many sports, including cricket. This study examines the application of the Pythagorean Expectation to estimate winning percentages in women's limited over cricket. The traditional method of calculating a team's winning percentage in cricket does not account for the margin of victory, defined as the difference between runs scored and runs allowed in a match. The Pythagorean Expectation takes into account both runs allowed and runs scored to provide a better representation of a team's strength over a period of time in terms of the offensive and defensive output of a team. When utilized with historical data, this metric can provide insights into a team's capacity to perform effectively in critical game situations. Eight women's cricket teams of the International Cricket Council (ICC) were selected for the study across two limited-over cricket formats -Twenty20 (T20) and One Day International (ODI).

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Publication Details

Journal
International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching
Published
2026-03-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1177/17479541261428790
Primary Topic
Sports Analytics and Performance
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Pythagorean expectation for predicting winning percentages in women's limited-over cricket

Anuradha R Chetiya, Samridh Goel
International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching
Sports Analytics and Performance
article

Pythagorean expectation for predicting winning percentages in women's limited-over cricket

Anuradha R Chetiya, Samridh Goel
article en

Abstract

The Pythagorean Expectation can be used to calculate expected winning percentage in various sports. This metric was developed by baseball statistician Bill James and has since been adapted in many sports, including cricket. This study examines the application of the Pythagorean Expectation to estimate winning percentages in women's limited over cricket. The traditional method of calculating a team's winning percentage in cricket does not account for the margin of victory, defined as the difference between runs scored and runs allowed in a match. The Pythagorean Expectation takes into account both runs allowed and runs scored to provide a better representation of a team's strength over a period of time in terms of the offensive and defensive output of a team. When utilized with historical data, this metric can provide insights into a team's capacity to perform effectively in critical game situations. Eight women's cricket teams of the International Cricket Council (ICC) were selected for the study across two limited-over cricket formats -Twenty20 (T20) and One Day International (ODI).

International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching
University of Delhi (IN)
Gender equality
Openalex Percentile: Top 17%
Sports Analytics and Performance
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