Kars province (Türkiye) GIS-based evaluation of wetland sustainability under land-use dynamics and climate variability

This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Kars province, northeastern Türkiye, focusing on Aygır, Çalı, and Kuyucuk Lakes between 1990 and 2018. Land use/land cover changes were analyzed using CORINE Land Cover data in relation to climatic variables, demographic shifts, and sustainability indicators. The results revealed marked transformations in wetland extent and adjacent land uses. Around Aygır Lake, agricultural areas expanded from 67.3% to 69%, while wetlands declined from 19.3% to 17.8%. In the Çalı Lake region, agriculture increased from 21.1% to 28%, whereas wetlands nearly disappeared (0.05%) by 2018. Kuyucuk Lake exhibited the most severe degradation, with wetlands decreasing from 11.8% in 1990 to 6.1% in 2018. Although precipitation exhibited a clear increasing trend over the study period, wetland recovery was not observed. Population decreased substantially (662,155 to 288,878), suggesting that human-induced land-use intensity rather than demographic growth is the main driver of degradation. Principal Component Analysis associated 1990 with high precipitation and population, while 2018 correlated with urbanization and agriculture. Markov Chain Analysis estimated trend-based transition probabilities indicating a high likelihood of wetland conversion to agricultural and/or urban land under the assumption that the observed land-use dynamics persist. A strong positive correlation was observed between wetland extent and precipitation (r = 0.975, p < 0.01). The findings emphasize the combined impacts of climate change, land-use intensification, and anthropogenic pressures, underscoring an urgent need for adaptive wetland management strategies in Kars province.