Skilled personnel risk management under war-induced forced migration: implications for labor market sustainability

Abstract This study develops a new methodological framework for workforce risk management by integrating the Human Capital Risk Index (HCRI), Monte Carlo simulations, sectoral employment analysis, and return scenario modeling. The HCRI quantifies workforce risks by measuring labor market pressure and economic burden on host countries, while Monte Carlo simulations forecast workforce volatility under different migration scenarios. The research further examines sectoral employment distribution of Ukrainian refugees and evaluates the impact of workforce repatriation on labor market stability in both host and home countries. Findings indicate that Poland and Czechia face the highest labor market risks, with HCRI values of 0.0372 and 0.0419, respectively, due to their high refugee-to-working-age population ratios. Germany, despite hosting the largest number of Ukrainian refugees, maintains labor market resilience due to its strong economy. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that workforce risks remain volatile in smaller economies, while more developed labor markets, such as those in Germany and the UK, demonstrate greater absorption capacity. The study also highlights the demographic and economic benefits of Ukrainian refugees, as their potential family reunification could rejuvenate aging labor markets in host countries. The study proposes policy recommendations for both Ukraine and host countries. This research contributes to the field of labor migration and workforce risk management by offering a long-term strategic approach to balancing labor integration and repatriation scenarios. Future studies should combine advanced digital tools with empirically grounded approaches, including surveys and interviews with refugees and employers, to improve workforce risk forecasting and policy design.