Regional patterns in citizens’ reactions to a political assassination: Evidence from Japan

How do citizens respond to political violence during election campaigns? Previous research suggests such events can increase support for the victim's party through a “rally ‘round the flag” effect, where the public unites against perceived threats, or an “empathy effect,” where individuals sympathize with the victim. Yet it remains unclear whether these effects vary across contexts. This study examines regional variation in public opinion following the 2022 assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which occurred two days before the national election. Using over 640,000 daily responses from a Voting Advice Application (VAA), we estimate changes in support for Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Applying the generalized synthetic control method (GSCM), we find no significant change in public opinion in the area surrounding the assassination site. By contrast, in Abe's home region, support for the LDP temporarily increased and support for rights restrictions declined, suggesting that psychological proximity to the victim briefly influenced public opinion. However, surveys conducted 8 to 9 months later reveal no persistent regional effects, suggesting that neither physical nor psychological proximity to the victim produced lasting changes in political attitudes.