Analysis of factors affecting cultivated land abandonment in China based on the DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC model

Cultivated land abandonment is an important issue for the protection and management of cultivated land. It is related to farmers' livelihood endowments and the optimal allocation of cultivated land resources. Furthermore, it directly affects food security, agricultural modernization, and comprehensive rural revitalization. In this study, we identified 30 influencing factors across four categories: natural geographic factors and farming conditions, socioeconomics, farmers' overall competency, and government policies, and employed the DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC model to illustrate the hierarchical structure, cause-and-result diagram, and driver-dependency matrix of the factors. We found that (1) the 30 influencing factors interact with each other, generating a five-level hierarchical structure, which can be classified into neighboring, transitional, and essential causes. (2) The system of factors influencing cultivated land abandonment includes 11 causal factors, 19 effect factors, and 13 critical factors. Agricultural Socialized Services have a strong driving effect on the other factors, and Distance to the Main Road, Township and County and Development Level of Land Transfer Market can influence the remaining factors. (3) These factors can be classified into four categories in terms of their driving and dependence power: autonomous, dependent, linkage, and driving factors, among which driving and linkage factors are more effective in inhibiting the occurrence of cultivated land abandonment. This study identified critical factors affecting the occurrence of cultivated land abandonment, and provides theoretical guidance for the management of cultivated land abandonment, thereby serving as practical reference for developing and improving relevant cultivated-land preservation systems and agricultural policies in the future. • Construct the influencing factor system of cultivated land abandonment • DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC model was used to analyze the influencing factors of cultivated land abandonment. • Identify the attributes, status and importance of each influencing factor in the influencing factor system of cultivated land abandonment.