Northward expansion and southward contraction of potential bamboo forest distribution in China under future climate change scenarios based on the MaxEnt model

• Markedly differ the climatic responses among various functional types of bamboo. • Significantly accelerates the northward expansion of bamboo forests under high-emission scenarios. • Soil and windspeed as secondary environmental factors influencing bamboo forest distribution,alongside bioclimatic variables. Bamboo forests provide significant ecological value through rapid biomass accumulation and carbon sequestration, making them important for climate change mitigation. To identify the dominant environmental factors influencing the distribution of bamboo forests in China, predict their potential distribution under future climate change scenarios, and elucidate the mechanisms underlying their response to climate change. We compiled a list of commonly distributed bamboo species and selected representative species including monopodial, sympodial and mixed bamboo. We then constructed and optimized a Maxent model to predict their current and future potential distributions for the 2050s and 2070s under four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). The results showed that the optimal MaxEnt model exhibited high evaluation indices (AUC > 0.8). The habitat suitability of bamboo species, significantly influenced by temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual precipitation (Bio12), is projected to expand northward and contract southward in the future. However, the potential suitable areas for monopodial, sympodial, and mixed bamboo across different time periods and scenarios, generally showing a trend of reduced extremely suitable areas alongside an increase in total suitable areas. Monopodial bamboos exhibited the most significant expansion (3.72%) under the SSP370 in the 2050s, while sympodial and mixed bamboo showed the largest expansions (3.95% and 4.1%, respectively) under the SSP245 in the 2070s. Notably, even under the high-emission SSP585, monopodial bamboo continued to show an expansion trend (3.28%). These findings suggest that future climatic conditions may enhance the overall potential for bamboo cultivation, reinforcing its role in climate change mitigation.