Analysis of Factors Influencing Fiscal Revenue in Hebei Province

Abstract: Fiscal revenue is the core financial guarantee that enables local governments to perform public service functions and promote high-quality economic and social development. Hebei Province, as a major economic province in northern China, is at a critical stage of industrial transformation and upgrading and the deepening of coordinated development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Identifying the core influencing factors of fiscal revenue is of significant practical importance for stabilizing local fiscal operations and assisting in the construction of a "strong economic province and beautiful Hebei". This paper selects time series data from the "Hebei Statistical Yearbook" for the years 2008-2022, takes public budget revenue as the explained variable, and selects regional gross domestic product, foreign trade import and export volume, retail sales of consumer goods, number of employed persons, and per capita disposable income as explanatory variables to construct a multiple linear regression model for empirical analysis. Addressing the issues of some variable coefficient signs not conforming to economic theory and insufficient significance in the initial regression, the model is optimized through logarithmic transformation. Subsequently, economic, statistical, and econometric tests are completed sequentially, verifying that the model has no issues with multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, or autocorrelation. The empirical results show that the number of employed persons and per capita disposable income have a significant strong positive impact on Hebei Province's fiscal revenue, retail sales of consumer goods have a certain positive effect, while the impacts of regional gross domestic product and foreign trade import and export volume are not significant. Considering the actual economic development of Hebei Province, this paper proposes targeted countermeasures and suggestions from three dimensions: enhancing employment capacity, increasing residents' income, and optimizing the economic structure, providing empirical reference and decision-making basis for Hebei Province to achieve sustainable growth in fiscal revenue and promote the improvement of economic development quality.