Russian Hybrid Warfare Against Poland 2022-2025

This article examines the evolution of Russian hybrid warfare against Poland between 2022 and 2025, arguing that Poland has become both a frontline target and a testing ground for Moscow’s adaptive toolkit of coercion below the threshold of open war. It situates Russia’s activities in the context of Poland’s strongly pro Ukrainian posture, its role as the principal logistics hub for Western military assistance, and the expanding presence of NATO infrastructure on its territory. Conceptually, the article engages with debates on hybrid warfare and sabotage, treating Russian operations as part of a long-term continuum rooted in Soviet doctrine and updated for contemporary conflict. Empirically, the study combines analysis of official documents, media reporting and existing scholarship to reconstruct a sequence of operations: the weaponization of migration on the Polish-Belarusian, and a series of espionage and sabotage cases involving both classic HUMINT assets and expendable “single use” agents. Particular attention is devoted to two recent incidents - the September 2025 drone incursion into Polish airspace and the November 2025 explosion on the Warsaw-Lublin railway line which are interpreted not as isolated episodes but as escalatory steps in a broader strategy of coercive ambiguity toward NATO’s Eastern Flank. The article concludes that Russian hybrid operations in Poland pursue not only military and logistical objectives, but also the gradual re engineering of public attitudes, especially toward Ukraine. It argues that effective responses require integrated counterintelligence, the protection of critical infrastructure, and allied fusion mechanisms, alongside careful management of public communication to avoid amplifying the Kremlin’s narratives.