Modeling for Fuel Policy in Divert Risk Due to Low Visibility Operations in Airline Operations

Fuel costs have the highest share in airline operating costs. Therefore, fuel efficiency is important for cost optimization in airline operation management. The cost optimization due to additional fuel transportation caused by meteorological conditions is also an important field. This study aims to provide data for making a decision to form a fuel policy for a flight schedule by determining the divert risk ratio by analyzing previous meteorology reports when there is a risk of diverting due to low visibility in meteorology reports. Thus, by providing data for airline operation managers to make decisions that will provide fuel optimization, cost-effectiveness will also be contributed. Data for the study were obtained from OGIMET (the Spanish meteorology website). A simulated flight was created, and the past period forecast efficiency was calculated from previous meteorological data for risk ratio. Then, it was revealed how much the divert risk ratio would reduce if additional fuel was carried for the flight according to past period meteorological data to ensure the aircraft for waiting in the air. As a result, a model has been created relating to how to determine the divert risk ratio to make a fuel policy decision for a flight schedule.