Forecast of building materials and their related environmental impacts: comparing wood-based and conventional construction pathways

<title>Abstract</title> The building sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe), necessitating carbon mitigating strategies to reduce its environmental impact. This study investigates the environmental implications of two construction pathways in Denmark - wood-based and conventional - projecting material flows and emissions from 2025 to 2050. Using life cycle assessments (LCA) for 16 case buildings across multiple typologies, the study evaluates the potential for wood-based materials to reduce GHGe compared to conventional materials. The results highlight significant environmental benefits of wood-based pathways, particularly in reducing upfront GHGe and the reliance on non-renewable resources. However, the findings indicate that annual emissions account for 49% and 96% of Denmark’s allocated share of the global carbon budget for the wood-based and conventional pathways, respectively, underscoring the pressing need for systemic changes in the construction industry. Comprehensive strategies integrating biobased solutions, circular economy principles, and reduced reliance on new construction are critical to achieving Denmark’s climate goals.