Analysis of the Influence of Selected Parameters on the Success Rate of Shotgun Firing on UAVs

Abstract In contemporary conflicts, land forces – including artillery units and even individual soldiers – have increasingly faced threats posed by small, inexpensive yet highly effective unmanned aerial systems (UAS). Even though extensive research has been conducted, it has proven challenging to support artillery efforts to counter Class I UAVs effectively. There have been several relatively successful attempts to examine artillery combat capabilities using UAV assets, depending on the technologies and methodologies used. Mathematical models and simulation techniques offer the possibility of predicting hit hazards, determined by detection capabilities, range determination, the probability of small-arms engagement, and the law of destruction. Specifically, this study analyses the probability that a Class I UAV is hit by massed shotgun fire (pellet cloud) as a function of key firing parameters, in particular the aiming error, lead determination error, and the dispersion characteristics of the weapon. The proposed Monte Carlo modelling framework enables parametric studies of counter-UAV shotgun engagements and provides quantitative guidance for selecting suitable weapons and shooting conditions.