401eP Patterns of lung cancer incidence and mortality in Europe: Age- and sex-stratified epidemiology and long-term projections

calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program.ARIMA modelling was utilized to forecast trends until 2035. Results:The ASDR in Serbia increased from 36.0 (95% UI 26.2 to 48.1) in 1980 to 40.5 (95% UI 35.6 to 46.9) in 2023, reflecting an overall rising trend (AAPC = 0.2*; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4).In contrast, the ASR-DALYs showed a decline from 1103.5 in 1990 to 1010.7 in 2023 (AAPC = -0.3*;95% CI -0.5 to -0.2), despite an earlier increase.Despite an overall reduction in disease burden, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) showed no significant overall change, remaining relatively stable from 1990 to 2023 (AAPC = 0.1; 95% CI -0.1 to 0.2).By 2035, the ASDR for Serbia is projected to decline to 39.2, representing a 3.4% reduction compared with 2023, while the ASR-DALYs are projected to decrease to 930.0 (-8.0%).The ASIR is also projected to decline by 8.4%, reaching a value of 39.5.Conclusions: Despite improvements in overall disease burden (ASR-DALYs), lung cancer mortality and incidence exhibited a prolonged increasing trend, with only a recent significant decline, underscoring that lung cancer remains a major public health concern.By 2035, mortality, ASR-DALYs, and incidence are projected to decline, indicating the potential impact of current prevention and healthcare strategies.Targeting key risk factors like smoking and air pollution and improving access to healthcare can further reduce mortality and incidence.