Silence is Not Golden: Legislative Participation and Re-Election of Japanese Local Assembly Members

Abstract In representative democracies, members of a legislative body formulate public policies. To secure an extension of their tenure, they must convince voters that they deserve another term. In this study, we investigate whether the adage “speech is silver, silence is golden” applies to elected officials by examining the relationship between legislators’ speaking records in the assembly and their performance in re-election campaigns. The speech data are drawn from local assembly transcripts spanning 2000–2023 in a Japanese city with typical Japanese demographic characteristics. Our analysis reveals a positive correlation between incumbents’ statements in the legislature and vote share during re-election (relative to their previous electoral performance). We also find that the impact of speech strengthens in the second half of their tenure, particularly as the next election approaches. These results suggest that while speech may indeed be silver, silence is not golden among politicians in representative democracies.