Assessment of carbon reduction potential for China's energy transition under the dual carbon target

• Modeling the carbon mitigation impacts of three types of environmental regulatory policies on China's energy transition under six scenarios; • Renewable energy subsidies can mitigate the negative effect of carbon tax on GDP, contributing to an increase of 0.01 %−0.03 % to some extent; • The power sector will achieve decarbonization 5−10 years ahead of schedule, making it pivotal to achieving carbon neutrality. • Wind and solar power account for over 50 % of the energy mix, becoming the major clean energy sources replacing fossil fuels; • The low-carbon energy transition faces key challenges such as power storage, transfer, and grid connection. Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) methodology, this research constructs a national-scale integrated multi-scenario CGE model. It simulates six scenarios, including carbon tax, energy structure optimization, and renewable energy subsidies, to assess China’s energy transition and carbon emission reduction potential under the dual carbon target—achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. The results show that: The GDP in the 20% renewable energy subsidy scenario is 0.01 %–0.03 % higher than that in the business-as-usual scenario in the early stage (2021–2035), while the other scenarios are lower. This scenario is the low-carbon and economic pathway for achieving a low-carbon transition in the energy sector, with the expansion of clean energy led by wind power (6.55 × 10 3 GWh) and solar power (5.14 × 10 3 GWh) becoming the main energy sources for replacing fossil energy by 2060, with their share of primary energy consumption reaching 30.99 % and 23.84 %, respectively. Achieving this requires a strong push for electrification reform. The low-carbon transition will delay the energy sector's peak time but achieve carbon neutrality earlier.