Robust adaptation strategy for enhancing climate resilience in irrigated agriculture

Abstract Adaptation as a goal has become an absolute necessity in water resources projects to cope with the negative impacts of climate change. Adaptation planning needs to move from the traditional predict-then-act approach to a broader vulnerability and risk-based approach. This article presents an evaluation of certain adaptation strategies by considering the case of an irrigated agricultural system. Our evaluation includes the assessment of the response of adaptation strategies in reducing risk and their robustness in terms of the potential to maintain system performance under maximum uncertain but plausible future climate conditions. We tested two broad strategies of water management and agronomic practices for reducing climate risks in the system, of which the former, we found, is more robust and risk-tolerant. The study also investigated additional risks that may lead to maladaptation by reducing crop yield, illustrating how adaptive water management can increase the robustness and resilience of irrigated agriculture.