Stage‐Specific Indicators of Northern Yellowtail Rockfish ( <scp> <i>Sebastes flavidus</i> </scp> ) Recruitment in the California Current Ecosystem

ABSTRACT Oceanographic and ecological conditions can be used to inform forecasts and decision‐making for marine resources, but the dominant drivers of recruitment variability remain poorly understood for many fish stocks. We developed a conceptual life‐history model of the oceanographic and ecological variables that influence the recruitment of yellowtail rockfish ( Sebastes flavidus ), a species with incomplete observations of young age classes in fisheries‐dependent data and fisheries independent surveys. We generated 29 hypotheses including seven life stages, from preconditioning of females to benthic recruitment, specific to the northern stock (40°–48° N). Model‐estimated recruitment deviations from the 2025 northern yellowtail rockfish assessment were used as the dependent variable in generalized additive models, with predictor variables drawn from regional and global ocean reanalysis and Ecosystem Status Reports for the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). Three variables explained 60% of the recruitment variability not accounted for by the stock–recruitment relationship in the assessment. Recruitment was maximized in years with intermediate timing of the spring upwelling transition, intermediate long‐shore transport, and when La Niña conditions occurred during the pelagic‐juvenile stage. Overall we find La Niña/El Niño conditions to be a dominant driver of northern yellowtail recruitment. These results are an important development for the application of oceanographic and ecological indicators in stock assessments in the CCE, but remaining analytical challenges exist for broader operationalization.