Climate and land use dynamics in India’s livestock industry

Purpose India’s high-value livestock sector is integral to rural livelihoods and food security, yet it faces mounting pressures from climate change and resource constraints. This study empirically investigates how climate variability and land use influence livestock production and population dynamics, with a focus on India’s vulnerable rainfed-mixed systems. Design/methodology/approach Using district-level data from 301 districts across 15 major Indian states, we examine the effects of climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and evapotranspiration) and land use changes (forest cover, fodder and pasture lands) on two dimensions of the livestock industry – production (milk, meat and eggs) and population (poultry and non-poultry). We apply the system-generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator to address cross-sectional dependence and endogeneity, complemented by robustness checks using panel-corrected standard errors and Driscoll–Kraay methods. Findings Forest cover significantly boosts milk production (elasticities: 0.48 short run; 2.32 long run) and non-poultry population (0.038; 3.91), while pastureland strengthens milk yield (0.58; 2.80). Fodder area enhances meat and poultry output, reinforcing feed security. Per-capita income and population density drive demand-led growth. Temperature exhibits an inverse-U effect, with optimal productivity at 33.2–35 °C. Rainfall deviations reduce meat and egg output (−1.5 and −0.66 in the short run; −7.24 and −3.19 in the long run) and shrink both livestock populations, whereas evapotranspiration enhances meat production up to an optimal level of about 87.6 mm. Originality/value This study provides novel empirical insights into how climate and land-use changes are reshaping India’s high-value livestock industry. It underscores the need for optimal management, sustainable forage use and climate adaptation. The findings offer valuable inputs for sustainable livestock policies and rural climate-resilience strategies.