Trade Integration, Diversification and External Balance: A Comparative Econometric Analysis of Romania and Poland

The transformation of trade structures represents a core dimension of economic integration in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly following EU accession and deeper participation in global value chains. Romania and Poland, despite similar institutional frameworks, have exhibited distinct trade trajectories in terms of specialisation patterns, intra–industry trade intensity and external balance. Understanding these differences is essential for assessing the quality of integration, competitiveness and structural upgrading in emerging European economies. Existing empirical studies often focus on single indicators or shorter time horizons, leaving room for a comprehensive, long–run comparative assessment based on multiple trade dimensions. The purpose of this article is to compare the evolution of trade specialisation, intra–industry trade and trade balance in Romania and Poland over the period 2002–2024. The study aims to identify similarities and divergences in their trade structures and to evaluate whether trade expansion has been accompanied by qualitative improvements and external rebalancing. By adopting a comparative perspective, the article seeks to contribute to the literature on trade integration and structural transformation in Central and Eastern Europe. The analysis is based on annual sectoral data on imports and exports for Romania and Poland covering the period 2002–2024. Three complementary indicators are employed: a symmetric Balassa–type revealed comparative advantage index (RSCA), the Grubel–Lloyd intra–industry trade index, and an export–import coverage ratio used as a proxy for sectoral trade balance. Descriptive analysis is complemented by linear trend estimation and structural break tests in order to capture long–run dynamics and identify major shifts associated with EU accession and post–crisis adjustments. The results show that while both countries experienced substantial trade expansion, Poland achieved a significantly stronger qualitative outcome, characterised by higher intra–industry trade intensity and convergence towards aggregate trade balance by 2024. Romania, although recording improvements in trade composition, maintained a persistent trade deficit. The article adds value by providing a long–run, indicator–based comparative framework that integrates specialisation, intra–industry trade and external balance into a single empirical analysis.