Housing Prices and Marriage Delay: Evidence from China

Abstract This study examines the impact of increasing housing prices on the delay of marriage in China, where homeownership is culturally expected for marriage. Using individual-level data from China’s 2010 National Population Census, we find that a 10% increase in housing prices delays the age of first-time marriage by about 0.89 months for urban-hukou holders while rural-hukou holders are not affected due to China’s land policy. Over the sample period from 2006 to 2010, rising housing prices can explain 64% of the observed increase in the marriage age among urban residents. The effects are more pronounced for female and younger individuals, who tend to delay their marriage more than male and older individuals. These findings are further supported by additional city-level analysis, which show that higher housing prices lead to higher unmarried rates, using city-level panel data from China’s National Population Census of 2000, 2010 and 2020. In addition, we find that a 10% increase in housing prices delays the age of first childbirth for urban females by about 1.63 months, which directly results from the delay of marriage.