Does the Belt and Road Initiative strengthen climate adaptation in participating countries? Global evidence and heterogeneous effects

Abstract The detrimental impacts of climate change present a significant barrier to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially for Climate Action (SDGs 13) and climate justice. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) offers potential benefits for climate adaptation in participating countries, but it also poses certain risks. This study aims to assess the impact of BRI participation on climate adaptation across 161 countries from 1995 to 2022. Using a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) approach with two-way fixed effects, the analysis reveals that BRI participation significantly enhances climate adaptation in some countries along the initiative’s routes. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that the BRI has more pronounced positive effects in high- and upper-middle-income countries, Asian nations, and those with higher greenhouse gas emissions. Mechanism analyses suggest that the BRI enhances climate adaptation primarily through improvements in climate readiness, particularly economic and social readiness. The findings highlight the imperative of strengthening absorptive capacity in low-income countries, enabling context-appropriate technology transfer, and deploying targeted financial instruments that directly reward vulnerability reduction, for leveraging the BRI to promote a globally inclusive climate adaptation framework and foster synergies across multiple SDGs.