Critical Resilience Factors for Post-Disaster Tourism Recovery: Evidence from Baños de Agua Santa via Fuzzy Multi Criteria Analysis

Tourism destinations exposed to chronic natural hazards require robust analytical frameworks to understand and prioritize the factors that sustain post-disaster resilience. This study examines Baños de Agua Santa (Ecuador), a volcano-exposed destination whose long recovery trajectory illustrates the complexity of socio-ecological adaptation. Using a multidimensional FAHP model grounded in expert judgments, eight dimensions and fifty-six criteria were evaluated through fuzzy triangular numbers and the extended analysis method of Chang to capture uncertainty and ambiguity in decision-making. Results show a consistent and hierarchical structure of resilience, with experiential, economic-entrepreneurial, and socio-community dimensions emerging as the most influential drivers of post-disaster adaptability. Fifteen criteria—primarily perceptual, community-based, and endogenous—achieved “very high impact” status, including risk perception, basic education, individual resilience capacities, institutional coordination, and entrepreneurial environment. Conversely, limited healthcare infrastructure, low economic diversification, and national-level vulnerabilities were identified as critical weaknesses. The study concludes that post-disaster recovery in Baños is shaped by a bottom-up dynamic that emphasizes agency, learning and socio-ecological memory. It also proposes an evidence-based Action Matrix for adaptive governance to guide prioritized, time-phased interventions. The FAHP model proves effective for transparent, context-sensitive prioritization in highly uncertain tourism environments.