Cascading response mechanisms of multi-aquifer groundwater levels and land deformation driven by precipitation and anthropogenic disturbances: Insights from the Beijing Plain, China

Beijing Plain Superimposed variations in precipitation, groundwater extraction, and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) have led to a complex deformation pattern, characterized by the coexistence of subsidence and uplift. However, the cascade response mechanisms by which natural-artificial water cycle processes influence land deformation through different aquifers remain insufficiently quantified. Hence, we develop a multi-scale cascade response coupling framework integrating 2000–2023 precipitation and groundwater level (GWL) with Radarsat-2 and Sentinel-1A InSAR data. By identifying GWL variation points and applying transfer-function modeling, we construct a hierarchical “precipitation-shallow GWL-deep GWL-and deformation” coupling model that quantifies vertical hydraulic connectivity and characterizes the spatiotemporal cascade and lag responses of the aquifer system and land deformation under different precipitation stages. Areas with deformation rates > 50 mm/yr decreased by 67.5% from 2016 to 2023 compared with 2010–2015, accompanied by 233.2 km 2 of rebound zones.(2) From 2018–2023, seasonal coherence (>0.5) between precipitation and the shallow aquifer strengthened markedly; rapid head recovery in the northern rebound zone induced seasonal land uplift, whereas low-permeability clays in the southeast maintained heads below pre-consolidation head, leading to residual plastic subsidence with interannual and strongly lagged responses.(3) Climate variability combined with SNWDP substantially mitigated land subsidence, with SNWDP driven extraction reduction as the dominant factor, subsidence rates decreased by 6% in 2016–2017 and by 72% in 2018–2023. • Proposed a framework coupling natural–artificial water cycle and land deformation. • Construct a hierarchical cascading model linking Pre, multi-layer GWL, deformation. • Northwest plain shows strong seasonal response of shallow aquifers to precipitation. • Southeast deformation shows interannual response and lag pattern. • SNWDP curb GW extraction, reducing subsidence by 6% (2016–2017) and 72% (2018–2023).