A Data-Driven Discrete-Event Simulation for Assessing Passenger Dynamics and Bottlenecks in Mexico City Metro Line 7

Mexico City’s Metro Line 7 is a critical north–south artery within one of the world’s largest metro systems, yet it suffers from persistent operational inefficiencies, including chronic overcrowding and extended passenger travel times. This research employed a data-driven discrete-event simulation model built in SIMIO to analyze the passenger dynamics of Line 7. The model was grounded in a comprehensive dataset of approximately 280,000 daily passengers over one year. Key innovations included modeling station-specific passenger arrivals as non-stationary Poisson processes with time-varying rates calculated at 15-min intervals and incorporating empirically derived walking times within stations. The simulation framework replicated the system’s operational logic, including train movements, passenger boarding and alighting, and complex transfer behaviors at interchange stations, while accounting for the influence of the broader metro network on Line 7’s passenger flows. The simulation results, derived from 100 replications, quantified severe systemic inefficiencies. The average total travel time for a passenger using Line 7 was 81.17 min. However, the ideal in-motion travel time was calculated to be only 53 min, revealing that passengers spend a disproportionate amount of time waiting. This yielded a travel time efficiency of just 65.3%. The model identified specific bottlenecks at key transfer stations like Tacubaya and San Pedro de Los Pinos, where platform utilization reaches full capacity, directly causing the excessive queuing times that degrade the overall passenger experience. This study demonstrated that the primary issue is not the speed of trains but the systemic inability to manage passenger flow during peak demand, leading to critical capacity shortfalls at specific stations. The simulation provides a quantitative tool for diagnosing these inefficiencies and offers a robust platform for prototyping and evaluating strategic interventions, such as optimized timetables and resource allocation, before costly real-world implementation.