Recency and decay effects in sanction risk updating

Abstract Recent tests of deterrence theory have indicated that individuals update perceptions of risk after experiencing an arrest in rational and Bayesian ways. Still, research in psychology has found that the impact of new information and experiences on perceptions is characterized by recency and decay effects, whereby “signals” lead to immediate changes in perceptions, but as time passes, individuals gravitate back toward prior beliefs. Drawing on this phenomenon, we assess the extent to which risk updating post arrest is subject to recency and decay—that is, whether experiencing an arrest leads to immediate changes in perceived arrest risk (a recency effect) but that the signal effect decays over time. We test these ideas using data from the Pathways to Desistance study and the Denver Youth Survey. Consistent with recency effects, the results suggest that more recent arrestees demonstrate relatively large and statistically significant risk updating, while those arrested earlier in a recall period display small and nonsignificant signal effects. Further, lowess smoothing functions of estimated marginal signal effects indicate an immediate risk updating effect, but one that declines with more time between signal and perception. The theoretical and practical implications for deterrence are discussed.