A Data-driven Generative Framework for Wind Turbine Power Prediction across Unseen Wind Sectors

This paper presents a two-stage generative framework for wind turbine power prediction (WTPP) under long-term uncertain wind conditions. By modeling at the sector level and training on five years of SCADA data, the method predicts sectoral power curves in unseen years through a temporal hold-out validation scheme. Compared with the physics-based model on the same test years, the proposed approach achieves lower errors while maintaining interpretability. The results highlight improved generalization and interpretability, providing a practical tool for power forecasting and grid operation.

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Publication Details

Journal
Research Explorer (The University of Manchester)
Published
2025-10-01
Primary Topic
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
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article

A Data-driven Generative Framework for Wind Turbine Power Prediction across Unseen Wind Sectors

Long; id_orcid 0000-0001-7877-7993 Zhang, Liyang Ma
Research Explorer (The University of Manchester)
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
article

A Data-driven Generative Framework for Wind Turbine Power Prediction across Unseen Wind Sectors

Long; id_orcid 0000-0001-7877-7993 Zhang, Liyang Ma
article en

Abstract

This paper presents a two-stage generative framework for wind turbine power prediction (WTPP) under long-term uncertain wind conditions. By modeling at the sector level and training on five years of SCADA data, the method predicts sectoral power curves in unseen years through a temporal hold-out validation scheme. Compared with the physics-based model on the same test years, the proposed approach achieves lower errors while maintaining interpretability. The results highlight improved generalization and interpretability, providing a practical tool for power forecasting and grid operation.

Research Explorer (The University of Manchester)
Affordable and clean energy
Openalex Percentile: Top 33%
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
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A Data-driven Generative Framework for Wind Turbine Power Prediction across Unseen Wind Sectors — Long; id_orcid 0000-0001-7877-7993 Zhang, Liyang Ma · Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS