Climate response to Nature Future scenarios in a regional Earth System Model

Land use management can help address the human-induced climate and biodiversity crises. However, substantial transformations in land systems are needed to meet internationally agreed targets concerning nature conservation, restoration, sustainable agriculture, and tree cover. Such transformations influence land-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon, and could have particularly strong effects on local to regional climate through changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Here, we explore how land use management in Europe, consistent with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, the Nature Futures Framework, and a sustainable low-emissions scenario, would affect the European climate mid-century. Using Earth System Modelling and detailed land use, habitat, and species projections, we show that policy implementation guided by relational values (Nature as Culture) could lead to additional warming and drying further threatening biodiversity and human well-being. Conversely, promoting intrinsic values (Nature for Nature) or ecosystem services (Nature for Society) would not add major challenges for climate adaptation and mitigation. These different outcomes highlight the need to develop integrative land use scenarios that enhance biodiversity and stabilise the climate, while considering feedbacks from land to the atmosphere. Such scenarios could help navigate trade-offs and inform policy implementation in Europe.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2026-03-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70284-8
Primary Topic
Land Use and Ecosystem Services
Type
article
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article

Climate response to Nature Future scenarios in a regional Earth System Model

Peter H. Verburg, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Édouard L. Davin, Gabriele Midolo et al.
Nature Communications
Land Use and Ecosystem Services
article

Climate response to Nature Future scenarios in a regional Earth System Model

Peter H. Verburg, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Édouard L. Davin, Gabriele Midolo, Jan Divíšek, Zvjezdana Stančić, Petra Sieber, Jonas Schwaab, Behlul Guler, Irena Axmanová, Stephan Kambach, Nikki Zimmerman, Sara Si-Moussi, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Idoia Biurrun, Milan Chytrý, Thomas Hickler, Wilfried Thuiller, Matthieu Leclair, Helge Bruelheide, Jürgen Dengler
article en

Abstract

Land use management can help address the human-induced climate and biodiversity crises. However, substantial transformations in land systems are needed to meet internationally agreed targets concerning nature conservation, restoration, sustainable agriculture, and tree cover. Such transformations influence land-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon, and could have particularly strong effects on local to regional climate through changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Here, we explore how land use management in Europe, consistent with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, the Nature Futures Framework, and a sustainable low-emissions scenario, would affect the European climate mid-century. Using Earth System Modelling and detailed land use, habitat, and species projections, we show that policy implementation guided by relational values (Nature as Culture) could lead to additional warming and drying further threatening biodiversity and human well-being. Conversely, promoting intrinsic values (Nature for Nature) or ecosystem services (Nature for Society) would not add major challenges for climate adaptation and mitigation. These different outcomes highlight the need to develop integrative land use scenarios that enhance biodiversity and stabilise the climate, while considering feedbacks from land to the atmosphere. Such scenarios could help navigate trade-offs and inform policy implementation in Europe.

Nature Communications
Goethe University Frankfurt (DE), Leibniz University Hannover (DE), University of Bern (CH), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (CH), University of the Basque Country (ES), University of Zagreb (HR), Dokuz Eylül University (TR), ZHAW Zurich University of Applied Sciences (CH), Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ), Masaryk University (CZ), Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (CH), German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (DE), ETH Zurich (CH), Institute for Biomedical Engineering (CH), Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (DE), Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine (FR), Swiss Academy of Sciences (CH), University of Bayreuth (DE), Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (DE), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (FR), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL), Université Grenoble Alpes (FR)
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Land Use and Ecosystem Services
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