Impacts of Climate Change on Glacial Lake Formation and GLOF Risks in the Nepal Himalaya (2005-2024): A Geospatial and Statistical Analysis

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on glacial lake dynamics and associated Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risks in the Nepal Himalaya from 2005 to 2024, employing a comprehensive geospatial and statistical analysis. Utilizing high-resolution satellite imagery and climatological data, we documented a dramatic proliferation of glacial lakes, with the total number increasing from 1,926 to 2,631—a net gain of 705 lakes—across major Himalayan ranges. This rapid formation is directly correlated with significant regional warming, with a mean annual temperature increase of 0.06°C, and erratic precipitation patterns. The research identifies and classifies these expanding lakes, highlighting their growing potential for GLOFs, which pose a severe transboundary threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. Furthermore, the analysis delineates key anthropogenic drivers—including deforestation, escalating wildfires, industrial emissions, and agricultural practices—that are exacerbating the region's climate vulnerability. The findings underscore the critical need for continuous monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes and the urgent implementation of adaptive mitigation strategies to address the escalating climate-induced hazards in this ecologically fragile and topographically complex region.