Can Ecological Civilization Construction Enhance Green Total Factor Productivity? Evidence from China’s Prefecture-Level Cities

Reconciling economic growth with environmental protection continues to represent a central global challenge. As one of the world’s largest developing economies, China has advanced an ecological civilization strategy that offers a unique opportunity to evaluate how national policy can shape sustainable development trajectories. This study assesses whether China’s ecological civilization construction enhances urban green total factor productivity (GTFP). Using panel data for 283 Chinese cities (2006–2019), this study identifies ecological civilization pilot cities through a standardized and reproducible protocol, measures urban GTFP using the Global Malmquist–Luenberger (GML) index and estimates policy effects with a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) design that accounts for staggered implementation and overlapping policies. The results indicate that urban GTFP exhibited an overall upward but fluctuating trend during the study period, with regional growth rates ranking East > Central > West and a tendency toward convergence in recent years. The analysis further indicates that national ecological civilization construction policies exert a statistically significant and positive effect on urban GTFP, with the findings remaining robust to parallel trend tests and multiple robustness checks. The promotion effect displays marked regional heterogeneity, being strongest in western cities, followed by eastern and central regions, and remains positive across different urban contexts, including resource-based and non-resource-based cities as well as cities within and outside the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Mechanism analysis further reveals that the policy effect operates primarily through industrial upgrading and green technological innovation, whereas the industrial structure rationalization channel is not statistically significant. Overall, this study provides a transparent and reproducible framework for pilot city identification and causal evaluation, offering policy-relevant insights for differentiated and region-specific ecological governance aimed at balanced regional development, industrial upgrading, and green technological innovation.