Tool-Health Digital Twin for CNC Predictive Maintenance via Innovation-Adaptive Sensor Fusion and Uncertainty-Aware Prognostics

A tool-health digital twin for CNC predictive maintenance is developed and operationalised as a fusion-and-state-estimation core that produces a latent tool-health trajectory (wear level and wear-rate dynamics) from multi-rate sensor streams for diagnosis and remaining useful life (RUL) forecasting under strict edge latency constraints. The scope is tool-health–informed maintenance decisions (condition-based tool replacement/scheduling), rather than a comprehensive maintenance twin for all CNC subsystems. Multi-rate vibration, spindle-current, and temperature signals are synchronized and windowed, and a linear state-space model with Kalman filtering and innovation-guided adaptive noise estimation stabilizes the latent health state across operating-regime changes. The fused state is then used by compact sequence learners, an LSTM for edge feasibility, and a compact Transformer as a higher-accuracy comparison, to output fault categories and RUL estimates. Predictive uncertainty is quantified via a Monte Carlo dropout and linked to reliability-aware actions through a simple alarm/defer/schedule policy, while SHAP provides feature-level interpretability. On a CNC testbed, fusion improves fault F1 from 0.811 to 0.892 and PR-AUC from 0.867 to 0.918 while reducing RUL RMSE from 10.4 to 8.1 cycles; the compact Transformer reaches 0.903 F1 and 7.9-cycle RMSE at higher inference time. The end-to-end pipeline remains within a ≤100 ms breakdown, maintains in-band innovation statistics, supports rehearsal-based updates under drift, and is additionally evaluated on external tool-wear and turbofan datasets.