Worldwide agroextractivism: A probabilistic approach

• We developed a novel index to quantify agroextractivism. • The analysis covered 23 countries across the globe. • Upper-Middle income countries exhibit the highest levels of agroextractivism. • State policies play a direct role in sustaining agroextractivism. Agroextractivism has increasingly attracted scientific attention, particularly within and from Latin America. While a substantial body of literature has emerged describing its main characteristics, there remains a significant gap regarding how to define and classify countries as agroextractivist, as well as how to compare the varying degrees or intensities of agroextractivism among them. Moreover, there is a lack of information on the probabilistic trajectories that may lead a country to adopt this model. In this article, we present a novel proposal that addresses both gaps. By applying a multidimensional approach at the global level, we develop an agroextractivism index and conduct a probabilistic analysis using panel data. Our results include the analysis of 23 countries across different regions. Of these, nine are classified as agroextractivist. Through the probabilistic analysis, we identify the variables that influence this process and present probabilistic trajectories for the period 2001–2021. We conclude by acknowledging that while the index provides only a limited perspective, its application allows us to identify a distinctive condition: the varying degrees of emphasis countries place on agricultural extractivism. Some are shifting significantly toward more intensive agricultural practices, while others show a less marked tendency.